[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":246},["Reactive",2],{"vNwITlC4NI":3,"AeESbl02Rv":30,"a-hidden-return-engine-harnessing-crypto-s-volatility-through-rebalancing":164,"_apollo:default":190},{"topBars":4},{"__typename":5,"data":6},"TopBarEntityResponseCollection",[7],{"__typename":8,"attributes":9},"TopBarEntity",{"__typename":10,"countries":11,"infos":19},"TopBar",{"__typename":12,"data":13},"CountryRelationResponseCollection",[14],{"__typename":15,"attributes":16},"CountryEntity",{"__typename":17,"Code":18},"Country","US",[20],{"__typename":21,"Message":22,"Link":23,"linkLabel":24,"badgeLabel":25,"openNewTab":26,"content":27},"ComponentTuplesTopBarContent","Hashdex Nasdaq CME Crypto Index US ETF \u003Cb> (Ticker: NCIQ) \u003C/b> Expands, Bringing US Investors Access to Five Leading Crypto Assets","http://hashdex-etfs.com/NCIQ","Learn more","Index New Composition",false,{"__typename":28,"data":29},"ContentEntityResponse",null,{"contents":31},{"__typename":32,"data":33},"ContentEntityResponseCollection",[34],{"__typename":35,"attributes":36},"ContentEntity",{"__typename":37,"slug":38,"isRestrictedContent":26,"contentUrl":29,"title":39,"blurb":40,"content":41,"publishDate":42,"timeToRead":43,"languages":44,"countries":55,"thumbnail":68,"heroImage":108,"author":111,"content_category":146},"Content","a-hidden-return-engine-harnessing-crypto-s-volatility-through-rebalancing","A hidden return engine: Harnessing crypto’s volatility through rebalancing","Bitcoin's volatility is declining—but the volatility that remains can generate returns. Hashdex CIO Samir Kerbage explains the math of rebalancing.","\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">One of the most common objections I hear from financial advisors considering crypto for their clients has been a simple one: \"It's too volatile.\" For a long time, the volatility critique was difficult to argue with. In the early years, bitcoin's annualized volatility crossed 150% at times. Holding it required a strong stomach and an even stronger conviction.\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Fast-forward to today, and the picture has changed considerably. Bitcoin's annualized volatility has declined meaningfully&mdash;from those triple-digit levels to often below 50% in recent years.\u003Csup>1\u003C/sup> That is still elevated by traditional asset class standards, but the directional trend is clear. Crypto is maturing, and its volatility profile is maturing with it.\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">For long-term investors, this is genuinely good news. Declining volatility is one of the clearest signals of a deepening market: more liquidity, more institutional participation, better price discovery, and a broader base of holders who are less prone to panic. It reflects the kind of market structure improvement that can make an asset more palatable to allocators who have fiduciary obligations or volatility constraints. In other words, the \"too volatile\" objection, while not yet obsolete, is increasingly an argument against the asset class's past rather than its present.\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">And yet, this doesn&rsquo;t mean that lower volatility is better in every dimension. There is a case to be made that crypto's remaining volatility, even in its more muted form, is not merely something to be tolerated. It can be, through regular rebalancing, an engine for return.\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">&nbsp;\u003C/p>\n\u003Ch3 dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(53, 152, 219);\">The math of rebalancing\u003C/span>\u003C/h3>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">&nbsp;\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">To understand why, we can look at a concept from renowned MIT mathematician Claude Shannon, a mid-20th century polymath whose findings helped lay the groundwork for modern information technology. In a 1961 lecture, Shannon described a thought experiment that has since become known among quantitative investors as \"\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(53, 152, 219);\">\u003Ca style=\"color: rgb(53, 152, 219);\" href=\"https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/shannons-demon-kenneth-hunt/1149830170\">Shannon's demon\u003C/a>\u003C/span>.\"\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">The setup is deceptively simple. Take a coin-flip game where you start with $100: heads, you gain 50%. Tails, you lose 33%. Sounds fair, until you consider that one heads and one tails puts you back to where you started ($100 x 1.50% = $150 and $150 x 0.67% = $100). Play it long enough and your actual compound return eventually converges to zero.\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Shannon posited that if instead of betting the whole amount each time, you rebalance half your gains into cash after every flip, your returns start compounding on each flip. His insight was that rebalancing into an uncorrelated asset reduces portfolio volatility and creates an invisible force working in the background (i.e., the &ldquo;demon&rdquo;) to improve the outcome. Because the drag grows exponentially, even a modest reduction in volatility can shrink the drag by a disproportionately large amount, more than it reduces the average return. This gap becomes a rebalancing premium&mdash;a return that comes from the act of rebalancing alone.\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">&nbsp;\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cimg src=\"https://hdx-website-cms-prod-upload-bucket.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2026_05_04_at_8_59_39_AM_f5bae7e0f8.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"603\" height=\"310\">\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\" style=\"text-align: center;\">\u003Csup>\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(0, 0, 0);\">Hypothetical or model per&yuml;formance results are based on assumptions and do not reflect actual investment results. Actual performance may differ significantly. The Shannon's Demon simulation is a theoretical illustration using a deterministic alternating win/loss sequence (+50% / &minus;33.3%) applied to a 50% risky asset / 50% cash portfolio, rebalanced after every flip. It is not based on real market data and is intended solely to demonstrate how periodic rebalancing can generate positive returns from a zero-expected-return asset.\u003C/span>\u003C/sup>\u003C/p>\n\u003Ch3 dir=\"ltr\">&nbsp;\u003C/h3>\n\u003Ch3 dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(53, 152, 219);\">Why this matters for crypto today\u003C/span>\u003C/h3>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>Shannon's demon is not unique to crypto&mdash;it applies to any sufficiently volatile asset. But crypto might be the most naturally fertile environment for the application of this concept in portfolio. Even at its more mature volatility levels, crypto is still two to three times more volatile than equities. That spread&mdash;between crypto's volatility and that of the other assets it sits alongside in a portfolio&mdash;is precisely what makes systematic rebalancing so powerful in this context.&nbsp;\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">To connect this to the context of today&rsquo;s market, we can look at what happened in the last year, when three macro shocks&mdash;President Trump&rsquo;s &ldquo;Liberation Day,&rdquo; the US-China trade war escalation, and the US-Iran conflict&mdash;led to elevated crypto volatility levels. After each spike, however, volatility returned to the prior, longer-term trend. Investors who understand this structural pattern are better positioned to size risk appropriately, hold through these recovery periods, and rebalance consistently.\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">&nbsp;\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cimg src=\"https://hdx-website-cms-prod-upload-bucket.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2026_05_04_at_8_57_05_AM_0de64e37fc.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"604\" height=\"312\">\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\" style=\"text-align: center;\">\u003Csup>Volatility data reflects past price changes and does not predict future risk or performance. Actual volatility may differ due to market conditions, economic events, or other factors. Volatility calculated using a 30D rolling window and annualized using 252 day. Elaborated by Hashdex Asset Management with data from CF Benchmarks and Bloomberg (from December 31, 2024 to March 31, 2026.)\u003C/sup>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\" style=\"text-align: center;\">&nbsp;\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">In practice, a diversified portfolio that includes a meaningful allocation to crypto alongside equities, fixed income, and other traditional assets, the rebalancing process naturally buys crypto after drawdowns and trims it after significant rallies. Over multiple market cycles, it can meaningfully improve risk-adjusted returns relative to a static allocation&mdash;not because anyone predicted peaks and troughs, but simply because the rules demanded action at the right times.\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">This is, in part, why I have always argued that the right response to crypto's volatility is not to minimize the allocation until the volatility goes away. It is to structure the allocation in a way that benefits from the volatility that remains. The two positions are not the same, and confusing them&mdash;treating lower volatility as straightforwardly better for investors&mdash;misses something important about how returns are actually generated.\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">&nbsp;\u003C/p>\n\u003Ch3 dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(53, 152, 219);\">A maturing market\u003C/span>\u003C/h3>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">&nbsp;\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">The longer-term secular decline in crypto's volatility is not, however, a reason for complacency. Lower volatility does not mean lower risk in any permanent sense, and it certainly does not mean the asset class is without its challenges. Concentration risk remains real and the correlation between crypto and broader risk assets&mdash;while not as stable as some assume&mdash;tends to spike precisely when diversification is most needed.\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">But the long arc of the data is telling a coherent story. Crypto in 2026 is a meaningfully different asset class than it was a decade ago, not just in price but in market structure, custody infrastructure, regulatory clarity, and institutional ownership. The volatility decline is sending us an important signal about the maturation of this space.\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">And yet the volatility that remains is not merely residual. Crypto assets are, by their nature, forward-looking claims on technology platforms that are maturing over time. That means prices will continue to move&mdash;sometimes sharply&mdash;in response to shifts in that perceived potential. Perhaps most telling is that this is exactly the kind of volatility that Shannon aimed to harvest: mean-reverting, episodic, and large enough to matter.\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">The opportunity for professional investors and their clients, as I see it, is to hold both of these ideas simultaneously. Crypto's declining volatility is a sign of health&mdash;evidence that the asset class is earning its place in institutional portfolios and that the early-adopter risk premium is gradually being priced away. At the same time, the volatility that persists is not an inconvenience to be managed around. It is a feature, provided the investment approach is disciplined enough to capture it.\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">At Hashdex, our approach to crypto has always been grounded in exactly this kind of systematic discipline&mdash;broad index exposure, rule-based rebalancing, and a long-term horizon that allows the mathematics of volatility harvesting to work over time. We believe the crypto economy is still in the early stages of its maturation, and that the combination of structural return potential and ongoing, harvestable volatility makes it a genuinely compelling component of a well-constructed portfolio.\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Shannon, of course, was thinking about information and signal processing when he described his &ldquo;demon.&rdquo; But he understood something that applies just as well to markets: that within apparent randomness, there is often structure to be found&mdash;and that the right process, applied with patience, can extract real value from it.\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">&nbsp;\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csup>[1] Annualized volatility (30 day) as of April 27, 2026. Source:&nbsp;\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(53, 152, 219);\">\u003Ca style=\"color: rgb(53, 152, 219);\" href=\"https://www.theblock.co/data/crypto-markets/prices/annualized-btc-volatility-30d\">The Block\u003C/a>\u003C/span>\u003C/sup>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp>&nbsp;\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp>&nbsp;\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp>_________________________\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csub>Effective January 20, 2026, the index changed its name from Nasdaq Crypto\u003Csup>TM\u003C/sup> Index (NCI\u003Csup>TM\u003C/sup>) to Nasdaq CME Crypto\u003Csup>TM\u003C/sup> Index.\u003C/sub>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csub>This material expresses Hashdex Asset Management Ltd. and its subsidiaries and affiliates (&ldquo;Hashdex&rdquo;)'s opinion for informational purposes only and does not consider the investment objectives, financial situation or individual needs of one or a particular group of investors. We recommend consulting specialized professionals for investment decisions. Investors are advised to carefully read the prospectus or regulations before investing their funds.\u003C/sub>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csub>The information and conclusions contained in this material may be changed at any time, without prior notice. Nothing contained herein constitutes an offer, solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment management product or service. This information is not directed at or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Hashdex to any registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdiction.\u003C/sub>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csub>These opinions are derived from internal studies and do not have access to any confidential information. Please note that future events may not unfold as anticipated by our team&rsquo;s research and analysis. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of Hashdex.\u003C/sub>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csub>By receiving or reviewing this material, you agree that this material is confidential intellectual property of Hashdex and that you will not directly or indirectly copy, modify, recast, publish or redistribute this material and the information therein, in whole or in part, or otherwise make any commercial use of this material without Hashdex&rsquo;s prior written consent.\u003C/sub>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csub>Investment in any investment vehicle and crypto assets is highly speculative and is not intended as a complete investment program. It is designed only for sophisticated persons who can bear the economic risk of the loss of their entire investment and who have limited need for liquidity in their investment. There can be no assurance that the investment vehicles will achieve its investment objective or return any capital. No guarantee or representation is made that Hashdex&rsquo;s investment strategy, including, without limitation, its business and investment objectives, diversification strategies or risk monitoring goals, will be successful, and investment results may vary substantially over time.\u003C/sub>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csub>Nothing herein is intended to imply that the Hashdex s investment methodology or that investing any of the protocols or tokens listed in the Information may be considered &ldquo;conservative,&rdquo; &ldquo;safe,&rdquo; &ldquo;risk free,&rdquo; or &ldquo;risk averse.&rdquo; These opinions are derived from internal studies and do not have access to any confidential information. Please note that future events may not unfold as anticipated by our team&rsquo;s research and analysis.\u003C/sub>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csub>Certain information contained herein (including financial information) has been obtained from published and unpublished sources. Such information has not been independently verified by Hashdex, and Hashdex does not assume responsibility for the accuracy of such information. Hashdex does not provide tax, accounting or legal advice. Certain information contained herein constitutes for ward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of terms such as &ldquo;may,&rdquo; &ldquo; will,&rdquo; &ldquo;should,&rdquo; &ldquo;expect,&rdquo; &ldquo;anticipate,&rdquo; &ldquo;project,&rdquo; &ldquo;estimate,&rdquo; &ldquo;intend,&rdquo; &ldquo;continue&rdquo; &ldquo;believe&rdquo; (or the negatives thereof ) or other variations thereof. Due to various risks and uncertainties, including those discussed above, actual events or results, the ultimate business or activities of Hashdex and its investment vehicles or the actual performance of Hashdex, its investment vehicles, or digital tokens may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements.\u003C/sub>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csub>As a result, investors should not rely on such forward- looking statements in making their investment decisions. None of the information contained herein has been filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or any other governmental or self-regulatory authority. No governmental authority has opined on the merits of Hashdex&rsquo;s investment vehicles or the adequacy of the information contained herein.\u003C/sub>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Csub>Nasdaq&reg; is a registered trademark of Nasdaq, Inc. The information contained above is provided for informational and educational purposes only, and nothing contained herein should be construed as investment advice, either on behalf of a particular digital asset or an overall investment strategy. Neither Nasdaq, Inc. nor any of its affiliates makes any recommendation to buy or sell any digital asset or any representation about the financial condition of a digital asset. Statements regarding Nasdaq proprietary indexes are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should undertake their own due diligence and carefully evaluate assets before investing. ADVICE FROM A FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL IS STRONGLY 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